Benjamin Netanyahu, the longest-serving prime minister of Israel, has survived many controversies, including allegations of corruption and claims that a controversial modification of the country’s judiciary was an attempt to accumulate more power. However, he now faces the biggest crisis of his political career. Negative reactions to his government’s failures to prevent the Hamas-led terrorist attack on October 7, in which 1,200 people died and over 240 were taken hostage, as well as criticism of his handling of the war in the Gaza Strip, are steadily increasing. People within Netanyahu’s government and those hoping to see him replaced agree that his popularity has never been lower among the Israeli population.
However, due to the complexities of Israel’s parliamentary system and the whims of war, there are few paths for Netanyahu to be forced out of office. Nevertheless, analysts have stated that his long-term political prospects and legacy depend largely on how he handles things in the coming days.
In recent days and weeks, vigils for the murdered Israelis have turned into protests against Netanyahu’s leadership. Calls for him to take responsibility for the intelligence failures preceding the Hamas attack have turned into a campaign seeking his resignation. A far-right member of his government coalition, Itamar Ben-Gvir, has threatened to overthrow the government. Members of Netanyahu’s own party, Likud, have spoken of defecting, according to two senior party members. Additionally, the United States, Israel’s closest and most important ally, has begun pressuring the prime minister to limit the number of civilian deaths in Gaza.
As the war entered a new phase on Friday following the collapse of a seven-day ceasefire and the start of a renewed Israeli airstrike campaign, Netanyahu is seeking a solution—including the possible assassination of Hamas’ top leader in Gaza—that can appease his coalition, silence his critics, and satisfy a population desperately waiting for Netanyahu to bring the remaining hostages home from Gaza and defeat Hamas.
There is strong support for the war across the political spectrum, and an opposition party has joined Netanyahu’s coalition to form an emergency unity government and a war cabinet. The move towards unity was widely celebrated by the Israeli population as a sign that politicians were cutting through bureaucracy to manage the war effort. However, Netanyahu still has to contend with differences among leaders over negotiations surrounding the hostages, humanitarian aid, and the conduct of the war. For example, Ben-Gvir threatened during the ceasefire to bring down the government if the war was not resumed.
In a statement to journalists on Friday, Netanyahu stated that he was committed to “destroying Hamas.” Privately, he has told his aides that he is pushing for the military to kill Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza, according to a current Israeli official and a former official who have spoken to the prime minister in recent days.
The officials noted that Netanyahu believes that the killing of Sinwar, the alleged mastermind behind the October 7 attacks, would be enough to convince the Israeli public that a major victory against Hamas has been achieved and that the war can end.
Israeli political analysts have stated that Sinwar’s death could stem, but not reverse, the tide of public outrage against Netanyahu. Anshel Pfeffer, a columnist for Haaretz newspaper and author of “Bibi: The Turbulent Life and Times of Benjamin Netanyahu,” said, “If the Israeli army managed to assassinate a major figure from Hamas, I assume Netanyahu would seek to take credit for it.” Pfeffer added that despite the numerous scandals that have shaken Netanyahu’s reputation in the past, he has always managed to save his political skin.
For much of last year, hundreds of thousands of Israelis took to the streets to protest against Netanyahu’s plans to modify the judicial system. Many Israelis believe that the changes are linked to Netanyahu’s ongoing corruption trial, although he has denied any connection between the two.
In a September 7 poll conducted by Israel’s public broadcaster Kan, 75 percent of participants indicated that they believed Netanyahu’s government was “not functioning well.”
But in the weeks since the start of the war, Netanyahu’s numbers have been steadily declining. In a survey published on Friday by the Israeli newspaper Ma’ariv, 30 percent of respondents indicated that Netanyahu was the best candidate for prime minister, while 49 percent preferred his closest political rival, Benny Gantz, a former defense minister.
The same survey found that support for Likud had also decreased.
In Israel, governments are formed through a multi-party system based on which party can gather a majority of at least 61 out of the 120 seats in Parliament. Netanyahu’s coalition has 74 seats. To oust him, at least 13 members of Parliament would have to leave his coalition or a vote of no confidence would have to be passed in the legislature and another candidate selected to replace Netanyahu.
Aviv Bushinsky, a former political advisor to Netanyahu, mentioned that it was unlikely that either of these scenarios would occur. “Almost everyone you talk to today will tell you the same thing: that Netanyahu must resign from his position; that he cannot continue leading this country,” Bushinsky said. “And yet, at the same time, there is a very real scenario in which he will remain prime minister despite his unpopularity because of how difficult it is to replace him or remove him.”
Bushinsky said that some members of Netanyahu’s Likud party had spoken of splitting off to form their own party, but it was unlikely to happen in the midst of a war. “People will only act when it is opportune,” Bushinsky said. “It’s not just about leaving Likud, it’s about being able to form their own coalition of 61 people who support them. I just don’t think that kind of political constellation would work.”
The former advisor added that Israeli political sentiment has shifted to the right since October 7. He predicted that any future election could only be won by a right-wing candidate seen as a strong military leader.
Many of the Israelis who gathered on Friday afternoon in Tel Aviv’s so-called Plaza de los Rehenes (Plaza of the Hostages) agreed with Bushinsky. The large outdoor area of the Tel Aviv Museum of Art has become a regular site of protest, mourning, and celebration for the families of those who were kidnapped in Israel and taken to Gaza on October 7.
On Thursday, 24-year-old student Moran Gal and her boyfriend came to the plaza to cheer and celebrate the return of eight Israeli hostages. But on Friday, when the ceasefire ended and reports circulated that some of the older hostages held by Hamas had been killed, Gal had tears on her face.
“All of this is Bibi’s fault,” Gal said, using Netanyahu’s nickname. “How has he not apologized? How has he not admitted that he failed us?”
In Jerusalem, where near-daily protests outside the parliament calling for Netanyahu’s resignation have taken place, hundreds of people gathered on Thursday night to listen to Eran Litman, whose daughter was killed on October 7.
Litman accused the Israeli prime minister of failing to protect his daughter and of resuming the war in Gaza instead of saving the lives of more Israeli hostages. “He only thinks about himself, not his country,” Litman said.
“Shame!” thundered a crowd of hundreds of people each time Litman mentioned Netanyahu’s name.
Johnatan Reiss contributed to the research.
Sheera Frenkel is a journalist based in the Area of…