Venezuela’s President Maduro Diverts Attention with Territorial Dispute

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is facing a political dilemma. He is under pressure from the United States to hold free and fair elections after years of authoritarian rule, or face the reinstatement of crippling economic sanctions. However, analysts claim that it is unlikely for him to resign from power and that he could potentially lose in trustworthy elections.

Now, Maduro has reignited a territorial dispute with a much smaller neighboring country. It is a maneuver that seems to be motivated, at least in part, by a desire to divert attention from his internal political problems through the promotion of nationalistic fervor.

Maduro claims that the oil-rich region of Esequibo in Guyana, a country with an estimated population of 800,000, is part of Venezuela, a nation of approximately 28 million people. He will hold a non-binding consultative referendum this Sunday to ask voters if they support the government’s position.

Maduro’s argument is based on what many Venezuelans consider an illegitimate agreement dating back to the 19th century that granted the Esequibo region to Guyana.

Experts have stated that although most countries have accepted that the Esequibo belongs to Guyana, and given that the issue remains controversial for many Venezuelans, it is likely that the referendum will be approved.

The President of Guyana, Irfaan Ali, has said that “the Esequibo is ours, every square meter of it,” and has promised to defend it.

For Maduro, fueling a geopolitical crisis provides an opportunity to shift the national conversation at a time when many Venezuelans are pushing for elections that could challenge his hold on power. “Maduro needs to wrap himself in the flag for electoral reasons, and obviously a territorial dispute with a neighboring country is the perfect excuse,” said Phil Gunson, an analyst from the International Crisis Group who lives in Caracas, the capital of Venezuela.

Venezuelan groups and activists opposing Maduro organized primaries in October without any official government support to choose a candidate for next year’s supposed elections. Over 2.4 million Venezuelans cast their votes, a significant number that signals the potential commitment of voters in presidential elections.

However, since then, Maduro’s government has questioned the legitimacy of that vote and has launched legal attacks against its organizers, raising concerns that Maduro will resist any serious challenge to his 10-year rule, even as his country continues to suffer international sanctions.

High turnout is expected on Sunday, as public sector employees are required to vote, among other factors. Analysts said that a higher turnout than in the opposition primaries could bolster Maduro’s position. “The goal is to give the impression that the government can mobilize the people in a way that the opposition cannot,” said Gunson.

The Esequibo, a region slightly larger than the state of Georgia, is a rich tropical rainforest in terms of oil, minerals, and wood. In recent years, many people have migrated there from Venezuela and Brazil to take advantage of the illegal mining industry.

Guyana has increased its police presence along the border with Venezuela, while Brazil has sent troops to the region. So far, Venezuela has not deployed additional forces to the border.

However, part of the referendum’s language states that the government must exercise full sovereignty over the Esequibo, and some analysts said that its approval could give Maduro a justification to initiate hostilities. “Once the referendum is approved, Maduro is given a blank check to start or have some kind of military clash at his discretion in the Esequibo territory,” said Rocío San Miguel, a defense analyst in Venezuela studying the military.

If Maduro believes he could be defeated in elections, he could “activate the war button,” said San Miguel, and suspend the elections after declaring a national emergency.

The current dispute over the Esequibo dates back to approximately 1899 when a court was organized in Paris to determine the boundaries of what was then called British Guiana. Venezuelans claim that the region had been part of Venezuela when it belonged to the Spanish Empire.

But Venezuelans were not part of the court and consider its decision null and void.

In 1966, the governments of the United Kingdom, British Guiana, and Venezuela signed the Geneva Agreement to resolve the territorial controversy. Under the agreement, in the event of a deadlock, the dispute would be referred to the United Nations.

Since then, the region has been governed by an independent Guyana but claimed by Venezuela, although tensions decreased under the tenure of Hugo Chávez, Venezuela’s former president, who suggested he was not interested in addressing the issue when he visited Guyana in 2004.

However, that was before an oil boom turned Guyana’s economy into one of the world’s fastest-growing. Some of that oil is located in the Esequibo region, which constitutes about two-thirds of the country’s territory.

In 2020, the dispute was brought to the United Nations’ main judicial body, the International Court of Justice, where it remains unresolved. However, Maduro has stated that the court has no jurisdiction over the matter.

Last Friday, the court ordered Venezuela to refrain from taking any action that could alter Guyana’s control over the Esequibo. However, it did not prohibit Venezuela from holding the referendum, as Guyana had intended.

According to analysts, even if the referendum is approved, reviving Venezuela’s claim to the territory would likely only be a temporary distraction and would not increase Maduro’s popularity. “People need practical solutions to their everyday needs: food, medicine, education, hospital services, and roads,” said Gunson. “They don’t need to wave the flag. That won’t put food on their table.”

Some analysts drew parallels to former Argentine President Leopoldo Galtieri, who ruled during the country’s military dictatorship and ordered an invasion of the Falkland Islands in 1982 amid a decline in his popularity. He was defeated by the British army, leading to his removal from power.

People living in the Esequibo mostly speak English, culturally identify as Guyanese, and affirm that they want to remain part of Guyana, the only government they have known. Even when it was part of the Spanish Empire, it was considered a remote and underdeveloped territory.

Many residents said they enjoyed the tranquility of life in the Esequibo and the economic benefits of the oil boom, and they feared the possibility of having to leave their homes if Venezuela gained sovereignty over the region. “If we lose the Esequibo, where will we live?” asked Abdul Rashid, a taxi driver who said he was “happy and proud” of the way the Guyanese government was addressing the situation.

Bob Mahadeo, a photographer and video editor, said he did not understand how Venezuela could claim the territory when it had been developed by Guyanese. “This is our land,” he said. “Guyanese people have to stand up and fight against these people because this is about our sweat and our hard-earned gains.”

Anselm Gibbs and Flávia Milhorance contributed to this report.