Israel is nearing the end of the first phase of its operation in Gaza, which has presented a dilemma. In 2003, US Secretary of State Colin Powell warned President Bush about the consequences of invading Iraq, quoting signs in US department stores that said, “You break it, you own it.” This same principle now applies to Israel and northern Gaza, as it effectively controls the top third of the territory and has devastated the area. Israel claims it has used artillery and air strikes to protect its soldiers, placing the blame on Hamas. However, regardless of the reasons, Israel has left most of the zone in ruins, including Gaza City. The question now is what Israel will do with the destruction it has caused.
Israel does not seem interested in taking responsibility for what it has broken. It has not carried out a large-scale humanitarian operation, despite having a duty to do so. Israeli spokesman Mark Regev claims that now is not the time for such efforts, as fighting is still ongoing. However, it appears disingenuous, as the fighting in northern Gaza is increasingly limited and mainly occurs at night. Furthermore, there are no signs of Israel preparing for a humanitarian mission. Regev estimates that a million people have already moved south at the urging of the Israeli military. This leaves an estimated 200,000 people behind.
As the occupying force in northern Gaza, Israel has obligations to the civilian population whose homes it has destroyed. So far, it has provided minimal aid, including fuel, medical supplies, and incubators. However, Israel now faces a bigger dilemma regarding its next steps. It could choose to withdraw and leave the task of rebuilding Gaza to Arab neighbors and the West, but this would likely allow Hamas to return. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has promised to destroy Hamas for good this time, as his political survival depends on it. Alternatively, Israel could intensify its efforts and go after Hamas forces in the two-thirds of the Gaza Strip they still control. However, this would be challenging in such a densely populated area, especially with an additional million people present.
There is also the option of a compromise, where Israel remains in control of the north but does not expand further south. Netanyahu insists on maintaining security control in Gaza, signaling a lasting presence on the ground. This aligns with the views of his far-right partners in the government, who oppose the idea of a viable Palestinian state. However, the Biden administration in Washington warns against any actions that resemble reoccupation, as it jeopardizes the already slim hope for a two-state solution and peace in the region. Potential donor countries that could contribute to Gaza’s reconstruction also demand progress towards peace before providing financial support. A divided and destroyed Gaza, still under Israeli occupation, may satisfy Netanyahu’s far-right partners, but it will not be tolerated by the Biden administration for long.
Israel relies on the military aid and diplomatic support of the United States and cannot afford to alienate its patrons indefinitely. Meanwhile, Netanyahu relies on his far-right partners to stay in power. Ultimately, Israel’s leader will need to choose between pleasing its patrons or partners in the near future.