New York’s top court has granted Democrats the power to redraw the state’s congressional districts before the 2024 elections. They are expected to target six swing seats currently held by Republicans. Even small changes in district lines could make it more difficult for Republicans to maintain their seats and their three-seat House majority. However, finalizing the map may prove challenging. A bipartisan commission will have the first opportunity to draw it, followed by the Democratic-dominated State Legislature. Last year, New York’s courts demonstrated their willingness to enforce a ban on gerrymandering. Additionally, Democrats may face disagreements over their priorities.
Representative Brandon Williams, who represents Syracuse and surrounding rural areas, is considered the most at risk of the six freshman Republicans. Democrats already have a good chance of flipping the seat, but attempting to incorporate the liberal college town of Ithaca into the district could face legal challenges.
Moving Ithaca could also create a political challenge for Democrats, as it is currently part of a district represented by moderate Republican Marc Molinaro. Without Ithaca, the district would likely become safely Republican. Mapmakers could extend Molinaro’s district northward into a blue area or write off the seat as red and focus on shoring up Representative Pat Ryan’s neighboring swing seat.
Representative Mike Lawler, who won a district that President Biden also won, could be at risk if changes are made to his district. Even small adjustments could make the district more difficult for Democrats to win.
Changes to Lawler’s district could also impact Representative Jamaal Bowman, who is facing a primary challenge. The composition of the district could tip the balance in the primary race. Bowman wants Co-Op City, a large apartment complex in the Bronx, returned to his district.
On Long Island, there are three seats that favor Democrats on paper but were won by Republicans in 2022. Democrats are facing a dilemma of whether to focus on flipping one or two seats or improving all three to a lesser degree.
Representative Nicole Malliotakis’s Staten Island district is unlikely to be targeted by Democrats after their failed attempt to combine it with a liberal district last year.