Mixed Signals for Democrats in Recent Polls

By Ezra Klein | Nov. 10, 2023

In a recent poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College, Democrats were left in a state of panic as it showed President Trump leading in five out of the six key battleground states. The poll also revealed a significant shift in nonwhite and young voters in favor of Trump. However, subsequent election results on Nov. 7 showed Democrats performing well, with victories in Kentucky, Virginia, and Ohio. This led to a debate about the accuracy and interpretation of polling data.

Michael Podhorzer, a renowned figure in Democratic campaign circles, argues that polls conducted years in advance do not provide reliable predictions for the future. He believes that polling does not accurately reflect how voters will ultimately cast their ballots. Podhorzer emphasizes that polls often capture frustration and disappointment, but actual voting behavior can differ significantly. He dismisses the panic caused by the recent poll and suggests that it does not reveal anything new.

However, some Democrats express concern that the party is underestimating the threat posed by Donald Trump and are reluctant to consider alternative candidates. They argue that Trump’s re-election in 2024 would have dire consequences for American democracy. While Podhorzer acknowledges the risks associated with Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee, he believes that given the current circumstances, it is the most practical option.

The debate continues as Democrats grapple with the decision of whether to stick with Biden or explore other possibilities. The 2024 election remains uncertain, and Democrats are seeking to reestablish the coalition that propelled them to victory in previous elections.

Contact: ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com