Senator Joe Manchin III has announced that he will not seek re-election, stating that he has accomplished all of his goals. However, this decision has left the Democrats in Washington with the challenge of maintaining their slim majority in the Senate. With West Virginia now leaning Republican, the state has become highly conservative, with only Wyoming having a wider Republican margin in the 2020 presidential race. Immediately following Manchin’s announcement, Democratic operatives expressed their uncertainty about finding a competitive replacement on the ballot, particularly if Republican Governor Jim Justice wins the nomination. The absence of Manchin in the race is seen as a significant advantage for Republicans, both in terms of saving money and removing a seat from contention early on.
The Democrats already faced a difficult path to maintaining their majority, with two incumbents running for re-election in red states (Montana and Ohio) and Senator Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, who has switched her party affiliation to independent, yet to declare her plans. Additionally, the party must defend four Senate seats in battleground states: Wisconsin, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Meanwhile, Republicans also face challenges, including potentially divisive primaries and a history of nominating extreme candidates who have lost key contests.
With West Virginia no longer a factor, Democrats must win every race they are defending and rely on President Biden winning the White House in order to maintain their majority. In a 50-50 Senate, the vice president casts the tie-breaking vote. However, this is a risky proposition considering that a plurality of Americans have not approved of President Biden since August 2021, according to Gallup polls.
The challenging news for Senate Democrats is that they are on the defensive in each of the seven seats that both parties view as most competitive. However, the good news is that in five of those seven seats, the party has incumbents running for re-election, which historically provides a significant advantage. According to OpenSecrets, 83 percent of Senate incumbents have won re-election in 18 of the past 21 election cycles. Last year, all Senate incumbents were re-elected. The success of Democratic candidates in the upcoming races will depend on their personal brands and their ability to contrast themselves against the “extreme MAGA agenda” of Republicans.
While Montana and Ohio are top targets for Republicans now that West Virginia is off the map, both Democratic incumbents, Senator Jon Tester and Senator Sherrod Brown, have exceeded expectations in the past. However, they face challenges in states that former President Donald J. Trump easily won twice. Republicans are also attempting to recruit candidates who can appeal to both conservatives and moderates in the party, similar to the strategy that helped them secure a Trump endorsement for West Virginia Governor Jim Justice.
The most interesting second-tier race may be in Arizona, where there is a possibility of a competitive three-way race. The wildcard is Senator Kyrsten Sinema, who has yet to announce her plans. If she runs for a second term, she will likely face Representative Ruben Gallego, a progressive Democrat, and Kari Lake, a conservative Republican who is favored in her party’s primary. A competitive three-way general election would add excitement to what could be the most expensive Senate race in the country next year.
With West Virginia no longer a competitive race, both parties will have additional funds to spend on other battleground races. Last year, candidates, parties, and outside groups spent over $1.3 billion on 36 Senate races, including $737 million in just five states that are also on the ballot next year: Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The Democratic Senate map is undeniably constricting without West Virginia in play, but the party aims to go on the offensive in Florida and Texas. Although both states have been reliable Republican strongholds, Democrats see no better options to flip a Republican seat this year. In Florida, Senator Rick Scott seeks a second term, while in Texas, Senator Ted Cruz has been a constant target for Democrats.