Gas Prices Drop, Inflation Levels Decrease, and Interest Rates Fall

In the past month, the price of gasoline in the United States has fallen by 20 cents, bringing the national average to $3.24 per gallon. This decrease in gas prices is accompanied by a decline in headline and core inflation, which are reaching historic lows. Additionally, interest rates have dropped by about 40 basis points over the past few months. These positive trends contribute to a potentially favorable “misery index” (inflation + unemployment rate) for the current administration.

Danger Signs: Crime and Immigration

However, there are clear danger signs that should not be ignored. In the 2020 election, President Biden’s perceived brand advantage over the Democratic Party, particularly in terms of being tough on crime and immigration, has diminished. Biden’s opposition to open borders and his support for law enforcement, including the 1994 crime bill, played a significant role in his victory. Yet, the current administration’s silence on these issues allows the opposition to define them, potentially impacting public perception.

Addressing Concerns from the Left

According to analysts, Biden must accept criticism from the left in order to effectively communicate his credible record on border enforcement and crime. These are issues that divide the progressive base, but remaining silent on them may lead voters to believe that the administration does not care about their concerns. To reach a wider audience, Biden and other members of the administration need to prioritize addressing high prices, living costs, and cultural pragmatism.

Misleading Portrayal of the Democratic Party

Political scientist Jacob Hacker argues that the negative portrayal of the Democratic Party as elitist and weak on economic issues is largely a result of right-wing media framing. He and his colleagues assert that the party has not shifted its focus from economic to social/identity issues. Instead, they emphasize an ambitious economic program that encompasses various policy aims and public investments. The media’s role in shaping negative perceptions should not be overlooked.

Weakness in Biden’s Support

Harvard political scientist Ryan Enos warns that the weakness in Biden’s support could have significant consequences. With economic concerns, an uncertain international landscape, and perceptions of the party’s shift to the left on social issues, Enos suggests that if the election were held today, Biden would likely lose. He also highlights the potential loss of idealistic young voters who feel that Biden has abandoned the core values that initially attracted them. Issues such as immigration and Israel’s actions in Gaza could be deciding factors in key states like Michigan.

Analyzing the Democratic Party’s Challenges

Political scientist Jonathan Weiler takes a middle ground between different perspectives. He acknowledges the challenges faced by the Democratic Party, including the shrinking base and the perception that the party has become more dogmatically left-leaning. Weiler suggests that the party needs to focus on economic issues, confront left-wing radicalism, and embrace a post-populist economics that appeals to working Americans’ aspirations for growth and upward mobility.