Four years ago, Joe Biden was seen as the electability candidate — a moderate Democrat from Scranton who aimed to win over the white working-class voters who had supported Donald J. Trump. However, recent polls conducted by The New York Times and Siena College show that Biden’s electoral strength has waned. In five out of the six battleground states that are likely to determine the outcome of the presidential election, Trump has a lead over Biden. Widespread dissatisfaction with the state of the country and doubts about Biden’s ability to perform his job as president have threatened to weaken the diverse coalition that elected him in 2020. Trump currently leads by 48 percent to 44 percent among registered voters in the six states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. This may be enough to secure the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. However, Biden maintains a lead in the sixth state, Wisconsin.
With one year remaining until the election, there is still ample time for the dynamics of the race to change. The poll reveals an electorate that is disengaged, disaffected, and dissatisfied, setting the stage for a potentially volatile campaign. Many voters reluctantly support the two candidates and may shift their preferences as the campaign progresses, while others may choose not to vote at all.
The poll also suggests that it may not be daunting for Democrats to rebuild a coalition to defeat Trump, as he remains as unpopular as he was three years ago. However, it may be quite challenging for Biden himself. The survey indicates that Biden enters his campaign as a weakened candidate, lacking the personal likability, temperament, and character that were crucial to his narrow victories in the six battleground states in 2020. Vulnerabilities related to his age, economic stewardship, and appeal to young, Black, and Hispanic voters have become severe enough to jeopardize his chances of re-election.
The public’s perception of the president has significantly declined throughout his time in office, affecting Biden’s standing in the polls. This decline cuts across various demographic groups but particularly impacts his support among young, Black, and Hispanic voters. Surprisingly, Trump has made substantial gains among these groups, earning more than 20 percent support among Black voters.
In contrast, Biden has maintained his support among older white voters, allowing him to remain competitive in the predominantly white Northern battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. However, Trump has built a more comfortable lead in the more diverse Sun Belt states.
If the poll results were to reflect the final election tallies next November, it could represent a significant shift in American politics. Racial and generational polarization would fade, and Trump’s conservative populism would reshape the electorate, challenging Democratic aspirations of forming a progressive majority around young and nonwhite voters.
Nevertheless, there is still time for the electorate’s preferences to align with the familiar demographic patterns of the past few decades. The poll suggests that it may not be difficult for Biden to rebuild his winning coalition, at least on paper. To secure victory, he needs to energize traditional Democratic constituencies that remain open to supporting Democrats in a matchup against Trump.
In a hypothetical race without Biden, an unnamed generic Democrat leads Trump by eight points. Even Kamala Harris, who has not yet proven to be a political juggernaut, fares slightly better than Biden, trailing Trump by three points in a hypothetical matchup. However, Biden’s challenge lies in regaining voters who would be willing to vote for Harris but not him. These voters do not have strong support for Trump, but they express skepticism towards Biden.
The relatively tepid support for Trump among young and nonwhite voters raises the possibility that many of his gains may come from voters who might not turn out to vote next November. Biden’s weakness is concentrated among less engaged voters, many of whom did not vote in the last midterm election. While some of these voters will participate in the presidential race, not all of them will. Consequently, Biden fares slightly better among likely voters in the battleground states, including closing the gap with Trump in Michigan.
Overall, 49 percent of registered voters say there is “not really any chance” they will support Biden, including voters who seem like they should be available to Democrats. Even among the Kamala-not-Joe voters, more than half express skepticism towards Biden. Whether Biden can win back these voters will depend on the specific challenges he faces, his ability to address them, and his campaign’s ability to refocus the electorate’s attention on Trump and other favorable issues.
Biden’s challenge with these voters is not ideological, as most of them do not view him as too liberal or not progressive enough. Rather, there is a lack of confidence in his candidacy. However, there is still time for Biden to overcome these challenges and rebuild his support among various demographic groups.